The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Taleb claims the book 'practically wrote itself;' what he really means, is that he just lifted some ideas from old philosophers and let Word do the rest.

The Black Swan provides an interested reader with important insights, no doubt, but they are nothing new. Indeed, possibly the most frustrating aspect of this book is how vainglorious its author is. He claims he felt 'vindicated' on Black Monday ... How? All Taleb has done is taken others ideas and repackaged them. While he was correct to believe them in the first place, there is little of the author in the book. Worse still, the author disregards his own rules. Early in the book Taleb claims that with respect to foreign affairs, the best answer is, "I don't know," (because there are so many unknowns it's best not to assume them away). A little while later, however, he goes on a tirade against the use of the phfrase "Hardened by the Gulag." Taleb claims that the Gulag did not harden the mobbsters, instead it simply selected teh most physically fit (because all others would die), who were also the most aggresive to begin with. Notwithstanding this latter assumption, he also implicitly assumes no psychological component was present; a clear violation of his 'don't assume' policy. While this is relatively minor (although extremely aggrivating given Taleb's hubris and constant patronization) it is a clear example of Taleb's consistent lack of vision. Moreover, he constantly uses inappropriate and verbose language (indeed, it seems the Taleb wasn't honest at the beginning, and instead it was the book, PLUS Word's thesaurus who wrote The Black Swan).

Readers, I implore you, save yourself some money: get some Russel, Hume, and Bacon out from your local library and bookmark an online thesaurus. Whenever you think you may want to read The Black Swan, just take any sentence from the above philosophers, pick AT LEAST TWO words and use the thesaurus to find their synonyms and from those, pick the largest everytime and replace the origional word. Now you will be, for all intents and purposes, reading the Black Swan.

So, you wondered why the "guru" wasn't all that good. Taleb explains - in clear and entertaing terms - why you should "make up your own" mind. I look at things "differently" now - I tend to be skeptical anyway - but I feel better about my decisions. I am encouraging others to get the book or at least make an effort to find out about "the other sides of statistics!" And the concept of a "Black Swan" is fantastic !!
A good read !! Marty Dowling

Ha! My clever title has nothing to do with my review (or does it?). Anyway, I found this book quite challenging. As I've said in other reviews, I am quite the layman when it comes to statistics and probability. But I think I got the gist of Taleb's concepts: we rely on flawed notions to make decisions or to view the world: the ludic fallacy; the narrative fallacy; the confirmation bias, etc. Foolish men (I don't think there is even one instance of a woman being mentioned, as either one who gets Taleb's thinking or doesn't) in expensive suits push on us a Bell curve from the world of Mediocristan, giving a false sense of security (and depriving us of potential big wins) in a brave new world where Black Swans - those improbable incidents for which we are impecabbly unprepared - have hugely significant impacts on our lives.

Taleb's is a mind deeply immersed in many disciplines. For those of us who spent our time in college waiting for Thursday to start partying, the subjects can be a bit challenging: philosophy, economics, financial analysis. But if you want to stretch your mind, take the challenge. There are profound and significant insights and learnings. Can I describe them to you succinctly? No. It will probably take me a few re-reads to fully grasp it all. Nevertheless, it's worth the plunge. In any event, I will forever be skeptical about any information backed up by statistical analysis.

For all the interesting stories, Black Swans has essentially the same message as Taleb's earlier book "Fooled By Randomness"; market prices do not follow a bell curve, and instead have a lot more unexpected extreme events. That said, most investment-related books tend not to linger on this issue, so Taleb is providing a reminder of something critical in markets. His style does come across arrogant, and judging by the bibliography (as well as the main text), he does want to show the world he is widely read. The stories are fun, but at times they are tangential to his thesis. The problem with reading his book is that it leaves one thinking that all investment returns come from chance. I find Mandelbrot's ideas of "gray swans" more appealing in that respect as it hints at the possibility of some skill. Taleb says he is a fan of Mandelbrot, so it would have been nice for him to explore this idea more. The book may not be the most inspiring for those involved in markets (we're all rolling dice), but a much needed reminder of the role of chance.

This is an excellent analysis of the limitations and flaws in
our thought processes about reconstruction of the past and predictions of the future.Once you see them with the help of Taleb,you're better
prepared to understand the world of events that occur around us.
He even has suggestions as to how to reduce those limitations.
Not always an easy read but fascinating.....